Case 17
The Parallel Trends Slide
Open the file, inspect the artifacts, and decide what the evidence can support before the replay appears.
Case intake
The Parallel Trends Slide
A state workforce agency piloted a wage-subsidy and coaching program in eight counties with high manufacturing displacement. A legislative briefing slide says employment rose five points more in pilot counties than in comparison counties after launch, proving the program worked. The budget office wants to expand the policy statewide.
You are the causal reviewer. Decide whether the difference-in-differences slide supports the policy claim, which assumptions are weak, and what wording or follow-up analysis would be defensible.
View transcript
The pilot counties improved five points more than the comparison counties after launch. If analytics is comfortable, we want to say the program caused the employment gain.
Evidence board
Work the scene
Inspect artifacts in any order. Sort what each one does, cite the few you would rely on, then assemble a final judgment with confidence.