Case 18
The Cutoff Policy Claim
Open the file, inspect the artifacts, and decide what the evidence can support before the replay appears.
Case intake
The Cutoff Policy Claim
A county housing agency piloted Stay Housed, a rental-assistance navigator for applicants with a housing-instability score of 70 or higher. The evaluation slide compares households just above and just below the cutoff and says navigator access reduced eviction filings by 9.4 percentage points. The agency wants to use the finding in a state budget request.
You are the causal reviewer. Decide whether the cutoff analysis supports the policy claim, which assumptions are vulnerable, and what wording or follow-up analysis would be defensible.
View transcript
The cutoff analysis is exactly what budget staff asked for. Households above seventy did much better, so I want to say the navigator prevented evictions.
Evidence board
Work the scene
Inspect artifacts in any order. Sort what each one does, cite the few you would rely on, then assemble a final judgment with confidence.